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What will be the outcome of the negotiations between the Government and the TTP?



Tensions between the Pakistani government and the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have been simmering for some time, with some analysts interpreting the situation as an English idiom one step ahead and two steps back. Negotiations between the government and the TTP have been going on for almost two months now, with statements of ceasefire and ceasefire ending and so far the talks have not been rejected outright.

Maj. Gen. Babar Iftikhar, head of the army's public relations department, told a news conference on January 5 that talks with the TTP were suspended, while a TTP spokesman said he was ready for both war and negotiations.

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Negotiations, ceasefires, and then violence

Security analysts are not optimistic about the situation, but say it could continue for some time between the government and the TTP.

Senior journalists say talks between the government and the TTP began in February 2021, with the Afghan Taliban playing a key role. It was started mainly by some important tribal leaders of Pakistan's tribal areas and then the Afghan Taliban was included. They said that an important meeting was held on October 25 last year in which the Taliban demanded the release of 102 prisoners, five of whom were very important. Pakistan had released some prisoners but Pakistan had asked to keep three of them in Peshawar but the Taliban were demanding the transfer of prisoners to Afghanistan. According to journalists, although the talks are now suspended, some tribal leaders are still working for the success of the talks.

An analyst on extremism, says the TTP appears to have factions that want one group to negotiate with the government and another. There is a strong mood that sees the Afghan Taliban as a role model that if the Taliban can come to power in Afghanistan, they think it can happen in Pakistan as well.

The head of ISPR had also said in his press conference that there was factionalism in the TTP. TTP spokesman Mohammad Khorasani, on the other hand, dismissed the notion in his statement, saying the TTP was united and its actions were a reflection of that.

 

Is there any pressure on the government to negotiate with the TTP?

Talks with the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) were formally announced by Prime Minister Imran Khan in an interview with a foreign channel. There has been no clear statement from the government since then. For the first time yesterday, the Army's public relations department clarified the details of the talks. But some analysts say the government's silence since the talks began is due to pressure on the government, and others say the government was reviewing the situation.

According to the report, the government of Pakistan is under pressure from the civil society, and since the government is facing economic problems and the TTP's actions are imprinted in the minds of the people, and in such a situation if the government shows any kind of flexibility. If it does, it could worsen the situation for the government. Analysts said there was a lot of pressure on the government and the Taliban at the moment and that the pressure was negative, meaning no positive results could be expected from the talks.

According to the report, there is no international pressure on the government to negotiate with the TTP or not, while some political parties were taken into confidence for these negotiations internally.

According to the report that as far as civil society is concerned and the parents of Army Public School children, the government must have been concerned about it. He said the government could have accepted the Taliban's terms, but since the ceasefire was to last until December 9 and then on December 16 to mark the seventh anniversary of the attack on the Army Public School, key Taliban leaders Releasing could have created problems for the government.

 

The government and the Taliban have their own positions

ISPR spokesman Major General Babar Iftikhar told a news conference about the TTP that talks were suspended and that operations were underway against them. An ISPR spokesman said: "There is no ceasefire with the TTP and we will continue to fight until we get rid of this fistula." "As you are aware, the ceasefire agreement expired on December 9," he said during a press conference. As far as negotiations are concerned, they are still suspended, and operations are ongoing. Talking to these non-state militants at the request of the current Afghan government was an attempt to build trust.

He added that after August, the new interim Afghan government was conditioned by the Pakistani government that the TTP would not be allowed to use Afghan land against Pakistan.

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Following the press conference, the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) issued a statement on Thursday stating that there were no differences in its organization and that it was united after going through difficult times. The spokesman also said that the impression that his organization was not capable of carrying out major attacks was wrong and that it had carried out several attacks in one year. The spokesman said he wanted to make it clear that he was ready for war and negotiations.

 


What's next?

According to analysts, some sections of the country are in favor of these talks and want complete peace in the country while civil society and some sections are opposing these talks.

According to the report, does not think the talks can be a complete success. " Even if negotiations start, there are few signs of progress since both parties want to have talks on their own terms, and neither side is showing mercy."

In this situation, the situation of "one step forward and two steps back" would continue. Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy said that if the Afghan Taliban, which is playing the role of mediator, agrees with the TTP with a strong position, it is hoped that the situation will improve. Afghan Taliban played a key role in negotiating with the Taliban, and that Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani played a key role.

The success of the talks could add to the difficulties for the government as there are a large number of them who have enmities at the local level. Apart from this, there are some of them whose heads have been priced by the government and cases have been registered against them which are to be dealt with, so how will all these problems be solved?

Some tribal leaders in Pakistan who are working for the success of talks between the government and the Taliban say that the efforts are still going on. Efforts are on.


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